The Storm

If you look at any one variable affecting real estate deals right now, most of it still holds together. That's what makes this moment so easy to misread.

Climate risk in real estate markets is starting to show up in ways most people aren’t fully accounting for yet. There’s a tendency right now to look backward for clarity.

People tend to still think about risk the way we experienced it in 2008. But the storm we're experiencing now is very different.

The affordable housing crisis didn’t happen overnight and it’s not being driven by just one factor. What we’re seeing now is a convergence of forces.

In a typical cycle, you get a shock. Markets absorb it. Lenders adjust. Regulators respond. Everyone recalibrates, and we move on. That sequential pattern has held for decades. The systems I'm [...]

Credit models are built on historical precedent. Climate patterns are beginning to break that precedent. The result can lead to a systemic repricing.

Credit models are built on historical precedent. Climate patterns are beginning to break that precedent. The result can lead to a systemic repricing.

Insurance companies are often the first institutions forced to price reality — long before banks or bond markets fully adjust. That repricing is already reshaping property values, lending [...]

For more than a decade, cheap capital masked structural fragility across the financial system. As rates reset and liquidity tightens, those weaknesses are beginning to surface.

The Storm is about understanding how markets behave when the assumptions they were built on begin to shift and how investors, institutions, and policymakers can position themselves as those [...]