Investment Strategies

Every model on both sides of the desk says the trade should work. What’s most interesting is that house flipping costs, not values, are driving the problem.

Global debt doesn't feel expensive until the day it suddenly is. For a decade, governments could roll debt at rates that made the size of the number almost irrelevant.

Mortgage bankruptcy is the number real estate investors holding distressed paper should be watching right now, not foreclosure.

If you're in note investing, the ground under your deals is shifting, and not where the headlines are pointing.

Private credit has looked untouchable for years. Easy money, rising values, and defaults that stayed conveniently out of view.

Nobody wants to talk about climate change and real estate in the same breath, so let me be the one to do it.

Spend a week reading the housing market headlines and you'll come away sure the floor is about to give out. Turmoil, rates, buyers on strike, a correction waiting in the wings.

While national debt and rates are rising, over decades of resolving distressed real estate, I'm seeing a whole set of these currents start to converge.

I've spent decades buying paper on distressed real estate, and the most dangerous file is the one that looks fine. Private credit is sitting in that exact spot right now.

Two years ago, commercial real estate distress filled every forecast. But the wave that was supposed to hit, didn't.