The Storm

A new paper from Brian Shearer argues P&C insurance premiums are over $100 billion too expensive and raises a question every creditor should be asking.

I've spent thirty years studying the financial cycles that create exactly this kind of moment — the slow build, the visible warnings, the critical window where preparation either happens or it [...]

I wrote The Storm to spark this conversation about how decisions made in silos — a coverage requirement, a rate reset, a zoning call, a premium increase, a lax building code — are affecting all [...]

The debt market has a transparency problem and most investors aren't even aware they're working with incomplete data. The delinquency rate is telling a story — just not the whole one.

If you look at any one variable affecting real estate deals right now, most of it still holds together. That's what makes this moment so easy to misread.

Today’s foreclosure trends are developing under pressure from multiple directions: higher interest rates, affordability constraints, policy interventions, and borrower fatigue.

If you look at any one variable affecting real estate deals right now, most of it still holds together. That's what makes this moment so easy to misread.

Climate risk in real estate markets is starting to show up in ways most people aren’t fully accounting for yet. There’s a tendency right now to look backward for clarity.

People tend to still think about risk the way we experienced it in 2008. But the storm we're experiencing now is very different.

The affordable housing crisis didn’t happen overnight and it’s not being driven by just one factor. What we’re seeing now is a convergence of forces.