The Storm

Private credit has looked untouchable for years. Easy money, rising values, and defaults that stayed conveniently out of view.

Nobody wants to talk about climate change and real estate in the same breath, so let me be the one to do it.

Spend a week reading the housing market headlines and you'll come away sure the floor is about to give out. Turmoil, rates, buyers on strike, a correction waiting in the wings.

While national debt and rates are rising, over decades of resolving distressed real estate, I'm seeing a whole set of these currents start to converge.

A new paper from Brian Shearer argues P&C insurance premiums are over $100 billion too expensive and raises a question every creditor should be asking.

I've spent thirty years studying the financial cycles that create exactly this kind of moment — the slow build, the visible warnings, the critical window where preparation either happens or it [...]

I wrote The Storm to spark this conversation about how decisions made in silos — a coverage requirement, a rate reset, a zoning call, a premium increase, a lax building code — are affecting all [...]

The debt market has a transparency problem and most investors aren't even aware they're working with incomplete data. The delinquency rate is telling a story — just not the whole one.

If you look at any one variable affecting real estate deals right now, most of it still holds together. That's what makes this moment so easy to misread.

Today’s foreclosure trends are developing under pressure from multiple directions: higher interest rates, affordability constraints, policy interventions, and borrower fatigue.