with Bill Bymel

ABOUT THE EPISODE

Global debt is sitting near where it stood after World War II, and the math that let governments carry it cheaply for decades just flipped.

I spent this week with the BIS annual report, the read central banks themselves take seriously, and there’s a line in it that should stop you before you price your next refinance.

Bond market liquidity that looks fine on a Tuesday can be gone by Friday. Private credit stress is already showing up in the exact corner of the system built to be the safe overflow once banks pulled back. And interest payments are now crowding out room for anything else on the government’s ledger, which changes what safe global debt actually costs you, not just Washington.

As a fund manager who buys mortgages and real estate nationwide, I’m reading this report like a workout file — what breaks first, where the stress actually shows up, how to think about the next wave before it lands. It’s the same convergence I’ve been tracking in my latest book, The Storm: Markets Meet Mother Nature — debt, climate, and banking stress compounding each other instead of moving independently — except this time it’s showing up at the systemic level instead of loan by loan.

You’re the one holding the asset. You’re the one carrying the debt. You’re the one who has to underwrite the next refinance once the terms have already moved. This is a blunt, experienced read on the risks building in the global economy, and how they impact debt, rates, and real estate next.

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Stay connected with Bill Bymel: https://linktr.ee/billbymel

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