Mortgage Note Investing

Boston commercial real estate is as good an example as any of something I've learned over years of working distressed debt and non-performing loans

Every model on both sides of the desk says the trade should work. What’s most interesting is that house flipping costs, not values, are driving the problem.

Global debt doesn't feel expensive until the day it suddenly is. For a decade, governments could roll debt at rates that made the size of the number almost irrelevant.

If you're in note investing, the ground under your deals is shifting, and not where the headlines are pointing.

Private credit has looked untouchable for years. Easy money, rising values, and defaults that stayed conveniently out of view.

Nobody wants to talk about climate change and real estate in the same breath, so let me be the one to do it.

Spend a week reading the housing market headlines and you'll come away sure the floor is about to give out. Turmoil, rates, buyers on strike, a correction waiting in the wings.

For decades, climate risk conditions were predictable enough that banks, insurers, and investors could model risk with relative confidence. But that foundation is beginning to shift.

In a stressed real estate environment, extend and pretend is a control mechanism. It allows lenders to manage distressed loans without forcing outcomes that destroy value on both sides of the [...]

In a world that rewards speed, certainty, and strong opinions, listening has become a quiet discipline. Shifting conversations from transactional to relational.