Coffee with Bill: Debt, Climate, Cycles – the Cracks Are Showing and Here’s What I’m Watching Closely

“What looks like a cycle might actually be a correction. The question is… are you positioned for either?”

The Great Repricing Is Already Here
For years, the U.S. housing market rode a historic wave of appreciation, with sellers calling the shots and buyers lining up with cash in hand. But as we enter the midpoint of the decade, the landscape is reshaping rapidly and not quietly.

More than 60% of U.S. counties have already seen residential property values decline. This isn’t just a housing story, it’s a macroeconomic one.

And for investors, especially those operating in the secondary mortgage market, it’s a flashing signal that the era of easy assumptions is over.

What’s Really Driving the Shift?
Yes, interest rates matter.

But that’s just one piece of the puzzle.

Climate risk, global instability, and excess debt are no longer background noise, they’re shaping valuation models, investor confidence, and capital flow.

Add to this the growing number of “zombie companies” propped up by cheap debt that no longer exists, and suddenly the fragility of the broader system comes into focus.

Economic theories that once seemed academic – like Hayek’s malinvestment thesis – are now playing out in real time.

Why Smart Investors Are Studying the Past
The debates between Austrian and Keynesian schools of economics aren’t just philosophical, they’re practical. One sees crisis as a cleansing mechanism; the other as a call for intervention.

Knowing how those frameworks shape policy and perception could help you read the signals before the rest of the market reacts.

Climate Instability and Financial Risk
One of the most underestimated catalysts in today’s financial system is climate volatility.

We’re not just talking about weather events, but systemic disruption, from insurance models breaking down to asset repricing across flood-prone and fire-exposed regions.

This isn’t ESG fluff – it’s risk assessment 2.0.

These are just a taste of the topics we have and will be discussing in both regular and Coffee with Bill episodes on Debt Doctor, tune into this episode of Debt Doctor to hear more.

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As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts, feedback, or questions about this topic, episode or the industry.

Feel free to reach out directly to podcast@billbymel.com if there’s a specific topic you’d like me to cover in upcoming episodes.

Catch you in the next episode,

 – Bill Bymel, Debt Doctor

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