What the ABS Boom Reveals About the Debt Cycle Ahead

“When confidence expands faster than capacity, the cracks in the system will always force the truth to the surface.”

Every boom tells a story — but not all of them have a happy ending. As we’re discovering with the current ABS boom.

The recent buzz from this year’s ABS East Conference in Miami, FL painted a picture of confidence: record attendance, record deals, and renewed appetite for asset-backed securities. Yet beneath the excitement lies a more sobering reality.

Auto lender bankruptcies are surfacing. Asset values appear stretched. Regulators are circling with fresh scrutiny.

It’s a familiar pattern in every credit cycle — exuberance outpaces capacity until something cracks.

And while the surface narrative is about growth and innovation, the undercurrent is one of accountability, valuation, and timing.

Private credit is now in the spotlight, with “buy now, pay later” products and non-real-estate securitizations capturing investor attention.

But the question worth asking isn’t how big this market can get — it’s how strong its foundations really are.

Seasoned investors know that moments of euphoria are often the best time to stress-test assumptions. Caution isn’t fear; it’s foresight. Especially in a market where oversight is tightening, and enforcement actions are set to rise.

If history has taught us anything, it’s that booms are loud, but turning points are quiet.

Get my candid insights and what other industry insiders are saying behind the headlines about what today’s ABS boom might be signaling for tomorrow’s debt markets in this episode of Debt Doctor.

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Catch you in the next episode,

 – Bill Bymel, Debt Doctor

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